LABOUR face the humiliating prospect of losing to the Tories at the Holyrood election and slumping into third place, an exclusive Record poll predicts today.
The shock result comes as Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale prepares to rally her party’s spring conference in Glasgow.
Failure to hold on as the second party in the Scottish Parliament would be catastrophic for Labour, whose support has melted away in recent years.
Our Survation poll of more than 1000 adults suggests Dugdale will lose to rival Ruth Davidson by a single seat on May 5.
Labour and the Tories are tied at 18 per cent on the regional ballot. In the constituency vote, Labour edge it on 20 per cent compared to the Tories on 16.
But when the numbers are crunched through Scotland’s complex voting system, the Tories could come out on top with 22 seats to Labour’s 21.
The battle for second place has become the main contest in an election the SNP are certain to win, barring a major upset over the next few weeks.
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Our poll puts the SNP on an astonishing 70 seats out of the available 129 at Holyrood, one more than they secured in 2011.
The SNP are on 54 per cent in the constituencies and 42 per cent in regions.
The Greens are on 10 per cent, which could give them nine MSPs.
Ukip would win their first and only Holyrood seat, the poll suggests, while the Lib Dems would move up from five to six seats.
The seats were calculated using the online ScotlandVotes seat predictor, hosted by marketing firm Weber Shandwick.
The results will make grim reading for Dugdale as she goes into today’s conference. She’ll try to put a brave face on it by insisting the shine is coming off the SNP, particularly their record on the NHS and schools.
Dudgale will promise a Scottish Labour government would set up an online system to book GP appointments within 48 hours.
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Last night, Scottish Labour said: “For the first time since devolution, the Scottish Parliament election in May will be about how we use the major new tax powers to invest in the future of our economy.
“Kezia Dugdale has set out a bold plan to stop the SNP’s cuts to schools and other vital services. Faced with the choice between using Scotland’s powers to invest in the future of our economy or carrying on with the SNP’s cuts to schools, Labour would use the powers.
“We will go into this election with a bold plan to give everybody in Scotland a fair chance in life. We are in no doubt about the scale of challenge but we are confident in our vision for Scotland.”
The Survation poll also looks at popularity ratings of party leaders, putting Dugdale below Davidson and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie.
The Scottish Labour leader scored minus nine, Davidson scored minus six and Rennie scored minus seven.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was the only one scoring a positive result, at 21. Green leader Patrick Harvie scored minus one.
Prime Minister David Cameron has the worst result of any British political leader at minus 35.
SNP business convener Derek Mackay said: “This is yet another very positive poll for the SNP as we approach the election – but is an absolute disaster for Kezia Dugdale on the morning of her own conference.
“People are continuing to reject a chaotic and divided Labour party which isn’t even regarded as a credible party of opposition, never mind a credible party of
government – and which finds itself locked in a desperate battle for second place with the Tories.
“And with their complete lack of any positive vision for Scotland, Labour’s position is only going to get worse.
“It’s also heartening to see such positive approval ratings for Nicola Sturgeon, while Kezia Dugdale finds herself even more unpopular than a right-wing Tory leader.”
Davidson has already predicted big things for the Tories in May, but the party tried to play down the poll last night.
A spokeswoman said: “People are responding to Ruth’s pledge to hold the SNP to account.”
• Survation polled 1051 Scots aged over 16 between March 10 and 17.
Two thirds of Scots say they want Britain to stay in EU
THE fight to keep Britain in the EU is backed by 65 per cent of Scots, a Record poll shows today.
Our exclusive survey reveals almost two-thirds support the campaign to stay in Europe.
Backing for a Brexit has increased by one point in a month, while support for staying in Europe has fallen by a single point.
The results, calculated by pollsters Survation, show Scots are more likely to favour retaining membership of the EU but in the rest of the UK the margin is much tighter.
The poll result comes as MSPs on Holyrood’s Europe Committee publish a new report showing the benefits of continued membership.
It underlines Scotland’s “crucial” access to the single market and fears for a long, difficult period if Britain votes to leave.
The report also raise concerns that the UK will become more “detached” from Europe even if voters say Yes to the EU in the June 23 referendum.
MSPs said Scotland should actively strengthen its place in EU policy-making to ensure the country does not get pushed to the sidelines.
Committee convener Christina McKelvie said: “We’ve had evidence from a wide range of Scots voices on what EU membership means to them.
“There are two sides to every argument and we’ve considered all the evidence but, as a committee, we are unanimous in our view that there is a positive case to be made in Scotland for EU membership.”
Former Labour MP Tom Harris, who is leading the Vote Leave campaign in Scotland, said: “Very few people are focusing on the EU referendum. But after the Holyrood elections, people will start to engage and we could see a turnaround.”