A no-deal Brexit will hit European countries the hardest – costing them a WHOPPING £500BN
STUBBORN EU chiefs were warned last night they will pay a heavy price if they try to punish Britain for leaving.
A “no deal” Brexit could cost the 27 members states an eye-watering £500billion in trade tariffs and extra contributions, a report reveals.
Tens of thousands of jobs would be face the axe as their own economies are damaged by the shockwaves of our departure.
The full impact of Britain crashing out next March is laid bare in a doomsday report on the consequences for mainland Europe.
Theresa May will brandish the stark predictions of her Brexit department as she tours the continent in a bid to win support for her divorce deal proposals.
But MPs believe she should go further and spell out the risks on billboards in the member states.
They are furious that the government is targeting the British people with scare stories – but not the EU’s inflexible negotiators.
Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “The EU is very dependent on us for money and once we have left we will still be its biggest customer.
“It would be an enormous act of self-harm for the European Commission to insist on a punishment Brexit.”
The other EU countries’ would suffer a 1.5 per cent drop in national income if they failed to strike a trade deal with Britain.
Ireland would be the biggest loser, with four per cent drop, followed by the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium, according to the respected International Monetary Fund.
But even Germany is braced for heavy losses, with bosses predicting trade deals worth £61billion could be lost if Britain crashes out.
Its vaunted motor industry – which exported cars worth £18.5billion to the UK last year – fear further losses if the EU fails to reach a trade deal.
Exports would be hit by massive duties leading to a fall in sales and ultimately jobs.
German Chamber of Commerce boss Martin Wansleben said: “Our economy will be seriously impacted.”
A study by economics professor Patrick Minford says a “no deal” Brexit would mean the EU forking out £433billion in tariffs.
It would lose £28billion of UK revenue up to 2020 and £10biullion from longer term liabilities.
He said: “It could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown.
“For the UKL a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain. For the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss.”
Germany
TRADE deals worth £61billion are at risk if Britain crashes out, says the Federation of German Industry.
They fear the car industry would face £2billion in customs duties.
Ireland
WOULD suffer a four per cent hit if we fail to reach a deal – the worst of any EU country.
Ireland imports 89 per cent of its oil products and 93 per cent of its gas from the UK.
Belgium
A HARD Brexit will cost 42,000 jobs in the Flanders region alone.
The road transport sector will be hit by changes in customs, free movement and health and safety rules.
Spain
FARMERS would suffer, as 75 per cent of Murcia’s agri-food exports go to the UK.
There are also fears Brexit may affect tourism to such hotspots as Majorca and Ibiza.
France
THE £4billion trade surplus France has with Britain will be at risk.
French minister Gerald Darmanin admits no deal would be a “disaster” for the free flow of goods.
Italy
FACES paying an extra £900million a year into EU coffers to make up for Brexit shortfall.
Around 800,000 farmers could also suffer with new restrictions on free trade.
Project fear goes ‘Brino’- hunting
By David Jones, Former Brexit Minister
JUST over two years ago, the people of the United Kingdom decided that the future of their country lay outside the European Union.
It was the biggest vote for any cause in the history of British democracy.
That, in itself, was remarkable.
But what made the result of the EU referendum even more remarkable was that it was won in the teeth of the most unremittingly negative propaganda campaign anyone can remember.
The full weight of the establishment was deployed in the effort to scupper Brexit.
That campaign became known as “Project Fear”.
But, not for the first time, Britons demonstrated that they don’t scare easily.
Two years on, things have progressed. But Project Fear hasn’t gone away.
The aim now is not to keep us in the EU – even die-hard Remainers know that won’t happen – but to ensure we have such a soft Brexit that it will be as if we had never left.
The Government’s own Brexit White Paper makes clear that that is the desired outcome.
It proposes an exit deal whereby the UK acts as a tax collector for the EU, with the continued acceptance of EU regulations and the European Court of Justice as supreme legal authority.
Such an outcome wouldn’t be Brexit. It would be “Brino” – Brexit In Name Only. And that is the object of Project Fear Mark II.
So now we are told that Britain can’t leave without remaining tied to a host of EU arrangements.
For example, Airbus has announced it is considering relocating some of its UK operations if there is no exit deal.
To be fair, it would be in the mutual interest of the UK and the EU to have a deal. A Canada-style free trade agreement, for example.
The EU needs a good trading relationship with us just as much as we do with them.
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When we leave, we will be the EU’s second biggest export market, importing a net £100billion of goods.
The truth is that trade with the EU will continue whether or not we have an exit deal.
Ideally, we should have one – but not on terms that leave us shackled in a half-in, half-out limbo-land.
Let’s negotiate the future relationship sensibly and constructively. But let’s also make it clear that Brino is off the agenda.
Brexit was won too hard to be derailed by Project Fear.
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The Sun Says
BRUSSELS bureaucrats always put their precious project ahead of common sense.
It explains their approach to Brexit negotiations.
Yet our analysis of what a ‘no deal’ Brexit would mean for French pharmaceutical companies, German car manufacturers and everything in between should focus minds.
You can’t just find £500 billion down the back of the sofa, Jean-Claude.
The Brexit Department has its own detailed study too, but are keeping it private. That should change.
Let’s see if unleashing ‘Project Fear’ on the Continent helps our negotiating hand.
THE death of Elsie Scully-Hicks is a heart-breaking tragedy.
But our revelation today of a potential conflict of interest at the heart of the Vale of Glamorgan Council shows there are still serious questions to answer.
There should be no stone unturned.
We must ensure that nothing like this can ever happen again.