Result of any future Scottish independence referendum could be swayed by wording of the question, study finds

THE wording of the question in any second independence referendum “could change the course of a nation’s history”, an academic study revealed.

Research published by the London School of Economics showed that Scots did not back a UK split when they were asked a question framed as Remain/Leave, like the EU referendum.

And when it was asked in the same way as 2014 - “Should Scotland be an independent country?” - indy was still supported by less than half of people.

But if the question was asked as “‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”, support for a UK split narrowly tips into a pro-indy majority.

The LSE study team told how their research showed how “seemingly innocuous matters such as the question options could change the course of a nation’s history”.

The “Do you agree..” formulation was initially the SNP’s preferred option ahead of the 20145 referendum, but rejected by the Electoral Commission as it could have encouraged people with no firm opinion towards agreeing.

The LSE study - which quizzed a representative sample of 2,837 Scots - said: “On the Remain/Leave formulation, the independence side dips below its vote share in 2014.

“On the ‘Do you agree’ formulation, it tops 50 per cent.

“Of course, exactly whether and how wording tips the balance depends on the overall state of public opinion at the time.

“But the results highlight an important structural feature of referendums as binary choices with much at stake.

“If voters are evenly divided, as they are currently on independence, then even seemingly innocuous matters such as the question options could change the course of a nation’s history.”

The LSE-backed study was carried out by Manchester University political scientist Prof Rob Ford, University of Essex. politics professor Rob Johns, and Queen’s University Belfast political behaviour professor John Garry.

The team said: “Questions which begin ‘do you agree’ encourage acquiescence bias, increasing agreement, particularly among people without strong starting views on the matter at hand.

VOTING PATTERNS

“A similar dynamic can apply to Yes/No questions, with at least some people drawn towards the apparently more positive, assertive ‘yes’ option.”

They said the effects of a Remain/Leave wording are “harder to predict”.

The academics said: “It could change both the way people think and the way they feel about the options in front of them. Take those – clearly the largest group in the Scottish electorate in 2021 – who support both independence and EU membership.

“Many of them are not just pro-EU but identify strongly as Remainers. Indeed, some were only converted to the cause of independence by the Leave victory in the EU referendum.

“How comfortably could they vote for an independence option labelled ‘Leave’?

“Now take those who opposed independence in 2014 but voted Remain in 2016. Describing the anti-independence option as ‘Remain’ sit comfortably with their identity but could also remind them that, in fact, ‘Remaining’ in the UK means staying out of the EU.

“In either case, those who feel most strongly about the EU issue may be more influenced by a Remain/Leave wording.”

When the question was asked as “Should…?”, the Yes support - excluding undecideds - was 47.5 per cent. 

After the margin of error or “confidence interval” in the study is taken into account, Yes backing under the 2014 question could be as high as 50.4 per cent, or as low as 44.6 per cent.

When asked as “Do you agree…?”, the pro-indy score was 50.2 per cent, rising as high as 53.3 per cent or as low as 47.1 per cent.

And asked as Remain/Leave, the Leave support was 44.2 per cent, rising as high as 47.4 per cent or as low as 41.0 per cent.

IN THE BALANCE

Recent polls have shown support for independence versus staying in the UK as close to 50/50, when undecideds are removed, but with the pro-UK side slightly ahead.

Some of the SNP’s rivals reckon that if IndyRef2 is held, the question should be different.

There has been no suggestion the SNP will try to revert to the rejected “Do you agree..” format.

A draft indy referendum Bill published before May’s Holyrood election contained the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”.

Under the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020, the question will have to be re-tested by the Electoral Commission after the Bill is formally introduced, even if it’s the same as in 2014.

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