Could this be the first Premier League season EVER with more away wins than home? Teams are winning on the road at an historic rate thanks to a combination of empty stadiums, no pre-season and packed schedules
- There have been more away victories (26) than home (19) so far this season
- The record for a 38-game Premier League campaign was set in 2018-19 with 128
- That record will be broken with nine matchdays to spare at this rate
- The absence of fans and packed schedules has had a big impact on results
Football in a post-coronavirus world is a different animal. No fans, sanitised stadiums and a schedule more packed than ever have all contributed to creating a fundamentally different feel to the game we all know and love - even if it is still 11 v 11 over 90 minutes.
Of all the consequences of the changes we have seen over the last four months, none have been more marked than the total wiping out of home advantage in the Premier League this season.
Fifty-eight matches into a 380-match campaign, there have been more away wins than home - and by quite a margin at 26 to 19. That is a percentage of 45, which is far higher than the all-time Premier League average of 28 per cent. So, could we really see the first ever season with more away wins than home?
Tottenham celebrate their fourth goal at Old Trafford in the 6-1 demolition of Man United
A surge in away victories was noticeable very early on during Project Restart, though that eventually levelled out somewhat to 37 per cent over the 150 matches played in empty stadiums during June and July. One would expect this season's percentage to dip below 45 - it surely can't get any higher - as the season wears on and to move more in line with the Restart figures.
Still, that would represent a significant increase on the Premier League average and serves to prove what we always suspected and hoped: fans earn teams points.
After Manchester United's draw with Chelsea last weekend, Red Devils boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer suggested as much when he said: 'In the second half we pushed on and if the Stretford End is full, we might get that ball over the line.' While that might have been an attempt to detract from a dour performance, the stats do back up Solskjaer.
Premier League | Games | Away wins | Away win % |
---|---|---|---|
All-time | 10,944 | 3,045 | 28 |
2019-20 pre-lockdown | 288 | 87 | 30 |
Project Restart | 92 | 29 | 32 |
2020-21 | 58 | 26 | 45 |
Restart + 2020-21 | 150 | 55 | 37 |
Indeed, two of United's results are among the standout away victories this season, with Spurs winning 6-1 at Old Trafford and Crystal Palace triumphing 3-1. Another standout away result was Manchester City's 5-2 defeat at home by Leicester, when Pep Guardiola said his players were 'anxious' when 1-0 up. Again, a buoyant crowd may well have quelled that anxiety.
Another standout change this season has been a far higher than average number of goals, with freak results such as Spurs' 6-1 win at Old Trafford and Aston Villa's 7-2 demolition of Liverpool. The losing managers attributed those results to the limited preparation time that players have had for this season. While that has been true for every team, the presence of a pumped-up crowd can wake players up and help them through that rustiness, producing results that look less like they belong on a pre-season tour of Austria.
Players should be used to playing in front of empty stadiums by now, even if that has resulted in an undeniable boost for the away side. Once players got over the initial shock of not having fans in their stadium to cheer them on, they are still grateful for the home comforts of a familiar pitch, dressing room and facilities, which all help to gain an advantage along with a partisan crowd.
Leicester produced one of the shocks of the season as they turned over Man City at home
Crystal Palace secured a shock win over Manchester United at Old Trafford in September
Most Premier League clubs have played 15 matches under these conditions, with some playing in excess of 20 in and even close to 30 in all competitions in the last four months.
That points again to the tiredness of the players being the major contributor to freak results this season - and an away victory is by its nature, more often than not, the surprise result. As fitness levels return, which should be about now even without a pre-season, the number of freak results and away victories should in theory drop.
While it would still be a surprise to see more away wins than home come the end of the season, we will almost certainly see a record high number of away wins for a Premier League campaign.
The current record for a 38-match season stands at 128 - set just two seasons ago at a ratio of 34 per cent. At the current rate, this season will break that record with nine rounds of fixtures to spare.
Interestingly, there has been a gentle increase in the number of away victories over the course of Premier League history, with six of the seven seasons when the percentage has been 30 or above coming in the last decade. Still, no one could have predicted this surge before coronavirus struck.
Season | Games | Away Wins | Away Win % |
---|---|---|---|
1992/1993 | 462 | 118 | 26% |
1993/1994 | 462 | 128 | 28% |
1994/1995 | 462 | 123 | 27% |
1995/1996 | 380 | 96 | 25% |
1996/1997 | 380 | 99 | 26% |
1997/1998 | 380 | 101 | 27% |
1998/1999 | 380 | 96 | 25% |
1999/2000 | 380 | 101 | 27% |
2000/2001 | 380 | 95 | 25% |
2001/2002 | 380 | 114 | 30% |
2002/2003 | 380 | 103 | 27% |
2003/2004 | 380 | 105 | 28% |
2004/2005 | 380 | 97 | 26% |
2005/2006 | 380 | 111 | 29% |
2006/2007 | 380 | 100 | 26% |
2007/2008 | 380 | 104 | 27% |
2008/2009 | 380 | 110 | 29% |
2009/2010 | 380 | 91 | 24% |
2010/2011 | 380 | 90 | 24% |
2011/2012 | 380 | 116 | 31% |
2012/2013 | 380 | 106 | 28% |
2013/2014 | 380 | 123 | 32% |
2014/2015 | 380 | 115 | 30% |
2015/2016 | 380 | 116 | 31% |
2016/2017 | 380 | 109 | 29% |
2017/2018 | 380 | 108 | 28% |
2018/2019 | 380 | 128 | 34% |
2019/2020 | 380 | 116 | 31% |
2020/2021 | 58 | 26 | 45% |
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