The eve of the biggest tournament of the year is finally here, and everybody is getting their final picks in place. The majors are always impossible to predict because you're essentially just throwing darts at 25 different guys who are either playing well or have great form at a given course. This is especially true at Augusta National where history matters more than most.
Yet over the years, we have seen the Masters select its winners based on who is the best from tee to green and who makes the fewest big mistakes. It rewards the best ball-strikers -- always. That's why Augusta National is one of the greatest places in the world and why you see champions like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia and Jordan Spieth.
Yes, you have to putt it as well, but consider this incredible stat from Justin Ray about how well the past few champions have hit their irons throughout the week at Augusta National.
After rolling through the entire field and also making my pick based largely on that statistic above, I've come up with a list of nine players that I would take against the rest of the field. The green jacket could go to somebody from outside this list, of course, but I don't think it will. Here are the nine in no particular order. Check out our complete Masters viewer's guide so you know exactly how to watch action all week.
Watch all four rounds of the 2020 Masters starting Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best golfers in the world throughout Augusta National with Featured Groups, check in at the famed Amen Corner and see leaders round the turn on holes 15 & 16. Watch live on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App.
Odds via William Hill Sportsbook
2020 Masters predictions, picks
| 1 |
Jon Rahm
|
| Rahm is my pick, and he has a number of things going for him (not including two aces at two different holes in practice rounds early this week). Each of his last two finishes at Augusta National have been top 10s, and he's been (by a healthy margin) one of the three best players in the world over the last three months (we'll get to the other two below). Bryson DeChambeau is getting all the headlines, but I think either Rahm or Dustin Johnson is the guy to beat this week. Odds: 10-1 | |
| 2 |
Dustin Johnson
|
| It's difficult to see him not contending (which often means he won't contend). Six straight top-six finishes and four straight top 10s at Augusta National. Think about this: He's been more than a stroke per round better than Rahm -- again, the third-best guy in the world -- over the last three months . Odds: 17/2 | |
| 3 |
Justin Thomas
|
| Thomas is the superstar who's getting a little lost in the mix! Three top-eight finishes in his last four starts, and he's been the best iron player in the world over the last two years. He lost seven (!) strokes putting last year and lost the tournament by five. If he's only slightly below average with his putter, he wins major No. 2 over Tiger in 2019. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 4 |
Bryson DeChambeau
|
| I get the argument for DeChambeau, and I think it's legitimate argument, but one thing to remember is that the overwhelming odds are that he does not win this week. He's moved his chances of winning a major from, say, 6% to 8% (which is significant!), but that would still mean there's a 92% (!) chance that he won't win. Odds: 15/2 | |
| 5 |
Xander Schauffele
|
| Schauffele has finished in the top 10 in seven of his 13 major championship appearances and is the third of that group of the three best players in the world I mentioned earlier. Rahm has actually been the "worst" (air quotes) of the three, but he wins more than Schauffele, which is instructive when evaluating both players. Odds: 14-1 | |
| 6 |
Patrick Cantlay
|
| Cantlay seems to get lost in the shuffle a bit, but he led late last year after opening 73-73. He'll be relentless from tee to green and is coming in off a win at the Zozo Championship. You could probably make worse bets than the winner coming out of his threesome. Odds: 25-1 | |
| 7 |
Matthew Wolff
|
| Maybe the first semi-surprise on the list, but he's a star. His ball flight is fairly ideal for this place, too. I considered putting PGA Championship winner, Collin Morikawa, in this slot, but I think Wolff is a better putter than Morikawa. I do get concerned over Wolff getting over-aggressive and not picking his spots. Odds: 40-1 | |
| 8 |
Rory McIlroy
|
| I simply don't want to not have him on the list if and when he does win it. One nugget that intrigued me came earlier this week from Schauffele, who after playing a practice round with McIlroy said he's picked up speed and is hitting it farther than before. Something to keep an eye on throughout the week. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 9 |
Bubba Watson
|
| I'm kind of low-key in on Watson this week. I've been making the argument that he's not playing quite as well as he did when he won it in 2012 and 2014, and that's true. But if you're making me pick between him against guys like Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama, I'm going to go with Bubba. Odds: 28-1 | |
Who will win the Masters, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed six golf majors and called Patrick reed's big win two years ago.