Projecting the Broncos’ 2021 roster with free agency, draft targets and more

Here the Broncos are again, using the final days of the season as an evaluation platform for the offseason to come.

This isn’t where Denver had hoped to be as Week 15 rolled around in 2020, but when a mind-bending string of injuries to standout players began piling up at the start of the season, all roads began pointing to this outcome.

That’s not to say all is doom and gloom with the Broncos, who have shown steady progress throughout the season as a young offense dotted with first- and second-year players has started to find its footing. After a heavy investment on that side of the ball last spring — both during the draft and in free agency — that group is likely to look pretty similar next season, which makes these final three games, beginning with Saturday’s matchup against playoff-bound Buffalo, an important barometer of that unit’s progress.

The defensive side of the ball could be a different story. The Broncos will have some tough decisions to make on a number of highly paid veterans — none more pressing than the future of Von Miller. The salary cap, because of pandemic-related revenue losses, will dip sharply, with an expected floor of $173 million. That’s $25 million less than the 2020 cap.

The exercise below represents one way the Broncos may choose to approach the tricky dance ahead. Looking forward to 2021 can help illustrate what’s at stake over the final three games for a number of those key contributors who face uncertain futures.

A few notes before we begin:

• The depth chart does not project every player who would enter training camp in 2021. In some cases — like the offensive line, for example — there may be a greater number of players who make next year’s initial 53-man roster than are listed here. This is designed to be a rough estimation.

• I accounted for the Broncos first two-draft picks with actual mock selections. I assigned a non-named third-round pick to a position in this exercise. The rest of the selections were assigned as “Day 3 picks.”

• I trust you will agree with every projection I’ve made here, right? Right? OK, maybe not. Happy holidays either way.

Let’s ride:

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Projected starter: Drew Lock

This may seem like prisoner-of-the-moment analysis run amok, what with Lock coming off the best game of his career and all, but this has seemed like the most likely scenario to me all along. The Broncos have experienced so little continuity on offense in recent years — Lock was the fourth different opening-week starter since 2017 when he opened this year against the Titans — that a chance to finally build some will lead to Lock entering 2021 as the starter. Could the 24-year-old sharply slump over the final three games this season, throwing a wrench in any long-term plans? Sure, it’s 2020. All things are possible. But as Vic Fangio said this week, the Broncos have invested substantially in Lock. He still has not had a regular offseason to prepare as a starter. The view from here — yes, much can happen between Dec. 15, 2020 and Week 1 of 2021 — is the Broncos will give Lock that chance.

The most likely change I see at quarterback is the addition of a more productive backup. Jeff Driskel, who was signed by the Broncos as a free agent back in March, didn’t make it through one full start this season before he was replaced by 2019 undrafted free agent quarterback Brett Rypien. Driskel’s contract carries only a $750,000 dead cap hit for 2021, so the Broncos could pivot in another direction. While the reduced cap could make teams a little queasy about paying high dollar for a backup quarterback, Denver should be an improved team on both sides of the ball next season. The Broncos will have to be sure they are in a position to not miss a beat in the event Lock gets hurt or struggles mightily at the start of the season. Consider the free-agent acquisition listed below as a prototype veteran presence the Broncos could be motivated to put behind Lock.

Depth chart: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brett Rypien

Running back

Projected starter: Melvin Gordon

Even after missing a game to illness, Gordon has a reasonable shot at surpassing the 1,000-yard mark. (So long as he plays Saturday, that is. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury heading into the game against the Bills.) During the second half of the season, Gordon has been the big, productive back John Elway hoped he would be when the Broncos’ GM signed him to a two-year, $16 million deal in free agency. His 472 rushing yards since Week 7 rank seventh in the NFL during that span, and Gordon’s overall average of 4.65 yards per carry this season is the second-best mark of his career. Yes, Gordon faces a potential three-game suspension to start 2021 as the result of his arrest back in October for an alleged DUI. That punishment could potentially give the Broncos an invitation to cut ties and search the free-agency market for other — perhaps cheaper — alternatives. The prediction here is they won’t, choosing instead to stick with the back offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said recently has become increasingly comfortable with how his skills translate into Denver’s offense.

The thornier question might be what happens with Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos hold the cards because the former University of Colorado star is a restricted free agent. If the Broncos continue to view Lindsay as a talented complementary back who can fill in as the primary back when called upon — like, say, during a three-game stretch to start next season — then they have numerous avenues to bring him back. I could see the Broncos placing a second- or original-round tender on Lindsay, sticking with the current backfield for one more year — potentially adding a middle- to late-round pick in April’s draft — and then reassessing from there.

Depth chart: Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Day 3 pick

Wide receiver

Projected starters: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler

There is probably a no more cemented position group to project in terms of starters than this one. Sutton should be ready to go at the start of the season after recovering from ACL surgery. He caught three passes for 66 yards in a little more than a half of work during the one game he played this season, and Lock has clearly missed his favorite target. Jeudy should greatly benefit from the return of Sutton and the attention he draws. Hamler, while hauling in two long touchdown passes from Lock on Sunday, demonstrated the kind of over-the-top speed the Broncos coveted while using their second-round pick last April to draft the former Penn State standout.

The bigger question is how the rest of the depth chart at the position plays out. Tim Patrick, who has an outside shot at hitting the 1,000-yard receiving mark this season, has had by far the best year of his career as he approaches restricted free agency. He may not have the same kind of role once Sutton returns, but the Broncos could still be motivated to reach a deal in order to maintain familiarity among Lock’s targets. Plus, Patrick is proving to be a reliable red-zone threat. Playing him alongside Sutton, Jeudy and tight end Noah Fant inside the 20-yard line could give defenses a lot to think about.

Depth chart: Tim Patrick, Tyrie Cleveland, DaeSean Hamilton

Tight end

Projected starter: Noah Fant

Fant said recently that his second season hasn’t lived up to his high expectations. He has 44 catches, already surpassing his rookie-year total, but his yards per reception have dropped from 14.1 in 2019 to 11.2 this season, and he’s found the end zone only twice this season — with no touchdown catches since Week 2. Still, Denver’s 2019 first-round pick remains an important part of the team’s offensive puzzle. The question is how much of a role will Albert Okwuegbunam, who showed some strong flashes in four games before suffering a season-ending ACL injury in Week 9, carve for himself in his second season?

Depth chart: Albert Okwuegbunam, Nick Vannett

Offensive line

Projected starters: LT Garett Bolles, LG Dalton Risner, C Lloyd Cushenberry, RG Graham Glasgow, RT Ja’Wuan James

It is possible the Broncos could bring in a veteran center to compete with Cushenberry in training camp, but if the 2020 third-round pick continues to show improvement over the final quarter of the season, it’s hard to see the Broncos changing directions in the middle of the line. Bolles, Risner and Glasgow, who has three years left on the deal he signed last offseason, are also entrenched starters. That leaves the question of James, who opted out of this season after playing only 63 snaps in 2019. James’ contract — which carries a dead-cap hit of $19 million in 2021 — would make a pivot hard to imagine financially, especially given the crunched salary-cap landscape ahead. The Broncos could bring Elijah Wilkinson back if the two sides could find common ground on a new deal as a way to provide insurance.

Depth chart: Elijah Wilkinson, Netane Muti, Day 3 draft pick

DEFENSE

Defensive line

Projected starters: DE Shelby Harris, NT Mike Purcell, DE Dre’Mont Jones

The Broncos have reached long-term agreements with Purcell and Bolles over the last couple of months. This projection predicts the same outcome for Harris before he hits unrestricted free agency. His ability to knock down passes at the line of scrimmage is well-documented — linebacker Josey Jewell recently gave Harris a hard time in a media session for depriving linebackers and defensive backs some would-be interceptions with those deflections — but his impact goes further than that. One only had to see him chase Kansas City speedster Tyreek Hill 30 yards down the field in Week 13 to see the clear energy Harris injects into Denver’s defense.

There are no guarantees left on Jurrell Casey’s contract, and after an unfortunately short time on the field in Denver before suffering a season-ending injury, I predict the Broncos will move on from the veteran. Jones, the 2019 third-round pick who stepped into a starting role when Casey went down, has shown some flashes of productive interior potential. Is it enough to earn a bonafide starting role in 2021? Or will the Broncos seek to upgrade this spot in free agency or the draft? We’ll stick with Jones here for now. Another prediction: The Broncos bring back DeMarcus Walker. The 2017 second-round pick has put together a solid season after three up-and-down years to start his career and would add important and familiar depth.

Depth: DeMarcus Walker, McTelvin Agim, Day 3 pick

Outside linebackers

Projected starters: Bradley Chubb, Malik Reed

There is no pleasure derived from imagining Von Miller in another uniform. (Well, unless it’s the uniform of the team for which you root. In that case, such an imagining probably inspires one to break out in a Miller-esque happy dance.) Miller has said he wants to finish his career in Denver, the team that drafted him No. 2 overall back in 2011; the team he led to a memorable Super Bowl 50 victory while earning MVP honors in that game. But the one-team career arc is a rare one in today’s NFL, even for future Hall of Fame players. Though the Broncos are not as crunched for cap space as some other teams, that doesn’t free them from the responsibility of making the kind of tough financial decisions that are necessary to build for the future. We will revisit this discussion in the coming weeks. The idea of Miller entering his 11th season with the Broncos is not some out-of-the-question scenario. For now, this is the prediction.

The question then is how the Broncos address the pressing business of upgrading talent at the position. With the projection of Lock as the starter at quarterback in 2021, Denver is left to spend its premium draft picks on defensive players. The two most pressing needs: edge rusher and cornerback. My prediction some four months out is that the Broncos will spend their first two draft picks, respectively, on those positions. The projection, for now, is the Broncos select a cornerback with their top pick, leaving them to take Pittsburgh’s Patrick Jones II with their second-round pick.

Depth: Second-round pick Patrick Jones, Jeremiah Attaochu

Inside linebacker

Projected starters: Josey Jewell, Alexander Johnson

It would not be surprising to Elway take an aggressive posture in pursuing an upgrade at the linebacker spot. Lavonte David, the 30-year-old inside linebacker for the Buccaneers, is the most attractive option on the potential free-agent market. The former All-Pro has tallied 100 tackles in all but one season since being drafted by the Buccaneers in 2012, and you can expect Tampa Bay to do everything it can within reason to bring back its longest-tenured player. The Broncos could also target an inside linebacker early in the draft, but other positions on the defense are probably bigger priorities.

This group probably would have been a bigger concern had Jewell not answered the bell the way he has since being thrust into a starting role following the release of veteran Todd Davis in training camp.

“I think Josey has had a good season for us,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said last week. “He’s been solid all the way versus the run and pass. He quarterbacks our defense when he’s in there. We ask him to do a lot of things from an adjustment standpoint and he handles it very well. He helps other people with their assignments in getting lined up. I just think he’s had a really, really good year.”

That’s about as effusive as Fangio gets in his praise, and it signals that the Broncos remain high on Jewell as a potential long-term piece. So we’ll project continuity as the path forward at this position for now.

Depth chart: Justin Strnad, Day 3 pick

Cornerbacks

Projected starters: Bryce Callahan, first-round pick Patrick Surtain II

The final four games of this season — including Sunday’s nail-biting win at Carolina — could provide a clear illustration as to why the Broncos need to upgrade this spot. With Callahan and A.J. Bouye, Denver’s two top cornerbacks, both out of the lineup, third-round rookie Michael Ojemudia will get plenty of opportunities to prove he should be a fixture in the secondary for the Broncos next season and beyond. But with Bouye having no guarantees left on his deal and facing a suspension that will carry into 2021, and with Callahan entering the final season of the three-year contract he signed in 2019, the Broncos simply need to add more high-end talent at this position. Why not make it back-to-back years of drafting an Alabama standout in the first round? If Surtain is off the board, keep an eye on South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn or Clemson’s Derion Kendrick if the Broncos do indeed decide to go the cornerback route with their first pick.

Depth chart: Michael Ojemudia, Essang Bassey

Safeties

Projected starters: Justin Simmons, Keanu Neal

Kareem Jackson will turn 33 in April. There is a team option on the final year of the three-year, $33 million deal he signed in 2019. Denver could choose to go younger and cheaper at the strong safety spot, especially if they spend big in free agency at other positions (i.e., quality veteran insurance at quarterback.) The one downside of Simmons and Jackson having been so durable over the past two seasons — Jackson’s suspension at the end of 2019 represented the only two games the two have missed combined — is that Denver’s depth at safety, which includes Trey Marshall, P.J. Locke and Alijah Holder, really hasn’t had much of a chance to see the field outside of special teams. That makes it hard to evaluate whether any of those players could be relied upon to step into a significant role. It’s why free agency could be the avenue to replace Jackson if the Broncos decide to move on. Neal, after battling through significant injuries the previous two seasons, has largely returned to the form this season that made him a Pro Bowl player early in his career.

This all assumes, of course, the Broncos reach a long-term extension with Simmons, who is making a case to become the highest-paid safety in football.

Depth chart: Trey Marshall, third-round pick

Key additions

• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
• OLB Patrick Jones
• CB Patrick Surtain II
• S Keanu Neal

Key subtractions

• OLB Von Miller
• QB Jeff Driskel
• S Kareem Jackson
• CB A.J. Bouye
• DE Jurrell Casey

(Photo of Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)