It was all supposed to hinge on the surging turnout of Latino voters for Hillary Clinton and whether or not the Democratic nominee could persuade enough African American voters to emulate them.
In the end, according to exit polls, the election result seems to have been more about the clear backing of America’s white and wealthy voters for Donald Trump – including white graduates, and white female voters.
Far from being purely a revolt by poorer whites left behind by globalisation, who did indeed turn out in greater numbers for the Republican candidate than in 2012, Trump’s victory also relied on the support of the middle-class, the better-educated and the well-off.
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Of the one in three Americans who earn less than $50,000 a year, a majority voted for Clinton. A majority of those who earn more backed Trump.
Clinton’s lead among non-white voters was substantial, but not enough to make up the difference. It was also less than many anticipated – and less than Barack Obama’s four years previously.
Data from CNN’s Edison national election poll, based on a sample of 24,537 respondents at 350 polling stations, is not definitive – the US census board will provide that – and has contained errors in the past.
The polling guru Nate Silver, editor of FiveThirtyEight, said exit polls had done an “awfully bad job” on Tuesday night, initially predicting a Clinton landslide.
But on the poll’s evidence, although the disaffected, economically insecure white blue-collar voters to whom Trump was always going to appeal certainly helped him win in rustbelt states such as Michigan, they cannot explain the new Republican president’s performance nationwide.
What appears to have made the biggest difference on the night was the turnout for Trump of white voters across the board – of both sexes, almost all ages and education levels, and from mid- and higher income levels.
Among the more startling data to emerge from the poll:
- White voters, who make up 69% of the total, voted 58% for Trump and 37% for Clinton. Non-white voters, who make up 31% of the electorate, voted 74% for Clinton and 21% for Trump.
- White men opted 63% for Trump and 31% for Clinton; white women voted 53% for Trump and 43% for Clinton.
- Among non-college-educated whites, 67% voted for Trump – 72% of men and 62% of women.
- Among college-educated whites, 45% voted for Clinton – 39% of men and 51% of women (the only white demographic represented in the poll where the former secretary of state came out on top). But 54% of male college graduates voted for Trump, as did 45% of female college graduates.
- More 18- to 29-year-old whites voted for Trump (48%) than Clinton (43%).
Trump collected just 9% of black votes from the same age group, and 24% of Latinos. Compared with Obama four years ago, Clinton underperformed with black and Latino voters generally, winning 88% of the black vote overall, against Obama’s 93%, and 65% of the Latino vote, against Obama’s 71%.
Trump, meanwhile, while winning just 8% of the black vote, collected 29% of the Latino vote – two percentage points more than his 2012 predecessor, Mitt Romney.
Broken down by income bracket, 52% of voters earning less than $50,000 a year – who make up 36% of the electorate – voted for Clinton, and 41% for Trump.
But among the 64% of American voters who earn more than $50,000 a year, 49% chose Trump, and 47% Clinton.