Britain could stay in EU if public opinion shifts, says Tony Blair

Tony Blair has claimed Britain could remain in the European Union, despite the referendum result in favour of Brexit, if public opinion shifts in the next few years.

The former prime minister told a French radio station that people had the right to change their minds on the result of the June referendum, and said the debate would continue throughout the UK’s exit negotiations.

Theresa May has repeatedly insisted that “Brexit means Brexit”, stressing her determination to respect the result of the referendum by taking the UK out of the EU.

But Blair, who wanted the UK to stay in the EU and as Labour prime minister argued for joining the euro, said remain supporters should continue to warn voters about the costs and consequences of Brexit.

Speaking to the French radio station Europe 1, Blair said it was probable that the UK would leave the EU but possible it could stay in.

Negative economic consequences such as a fall in the value of sterling, damage to the financial services industry, weaker car manufacturing or a reduction in foreign investment in the UK could shift the debate, he suggested.

“At the moment, today, it is not probable, but the debate continues and I believe it is possible,” Blair said, adding that there was no reason why remain supporters should simply accept the result of the referendum, in which 52% of people voted to leave and 48% wanted to stay in.

“Who made a rule that we have to stop the debate now?” he said. Asked whether the campaign to stay in the EU could continue and British people could still change their minds, he said: “We have the right.”

Blair said the prime minister, Theresa May, had to stick to her position that “Brexit means Brexit” in order to preserve the unity of the Conservative party, but added: “For the rest of us, we are free to have a debate.”

He also pointed out that it was difficult to know what Brexit actually meant before the terms of leaving had been negotiated with the other member states.

“We have done something rather bizarre with Brexit,” he said. “It’s like moving house without having seen the new house. We have made an agreement to exchange, but we don’t yet know the terms of Brexit, we don’t know the costs and the consequences.”

He added: “There will come a moment when we have had the negotiations and we can see the terms we are being offered by the rest of Europe and we will be able to say that it is a good idea or perhaps that it is a bad idea with major consequences.”

It comes as the official remain campaign, Britain Stronger in Europe, relaunches itself on Friday as a new group to fightfor a Brexit deal under which the country remains open to trade and talent.

Open Britain has published a detailed paper on what it believes May should be pushing for during the Brexit negotiations, arguing that the starting point should be an “ambitious” demand to stay in the single market.

The group says the prime minister ought to push for economic protections, including tariff-free trade, alongside a bid to “mend not end” free movement. It claims that policies such as a migration impact fund and banning agencies from advertising solely overseas could be introduced.

And it suggests a Europe-wide discussion about the issue with all countries examining tying free movement of labour to offers of employment.

The Conservative MP Anna Soubry, a key backer of the campaign, said: “The campaign will marry a commitment to Britain’s membership of the single market with making a positive case about the benefits of immigration. The present system needs further reform. It’s particularly important people know the facts about immigration, we tackle their concerns and ensure the system works fairly for everyone.”

Pat McFadden, a Labour MP, said the electorate backed Brexit but there were still big, open questions about Britain’s relationship with the EU to be answered.

Such terms are unlikely to be acceptable to the pro-Brexit campaigners who pushed hard for the UK to leave and want a more comprehensive exit with a complete end to free movement between other EU countries and Britain. Downing Street has said it wants a bespoke deal for Britain and recognises the need to restrict immigration, but May has not set out exactly what she wants from a deal to leave the EU.

Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative chair of the House of Commons treasury committee, put pressure on the government to start explaining its position on Friday in a paper for Open Europe. He called for the government to distance itself from the leave campaign, particularly the promises about budget savings, and a trade deal that gives the UK not just access to the single market but influence over services regulation. He said this means neither World Trade Organisation rules nor membership of the European Economic Area would work.

He also said triggering article 50, starting the process of leaving the EU, should not be rushed, and the government should, if necessary, be willing to wait until after French and German elections next year.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, gave an indication of how he would like a new deal for Britain to work as he spoke in Northern Ireland on Thursday.

“What we will seek to do is ideally to have a tariff-free access, but this is a matter of negotiation, and we will be negotiating over an issue which I suspect we will find is in the interest of the other members of the EU as well as us, to get a good trading relationship in the long run,” he said.