Voters overwhelmingly want Britain to remain in the EU single market after Brexit but would also like to see controls on immigration, according to a study that suggests Theresa May faces a tough political challenge in reconciling public expectations.
Extensive polling carried out by NatCen, the independent social research agency, and overseen by the elections expert John Curtice suggests 90% of people favour remaining in the single market, regardless of how they voted in the referendum.
Other elements of a “soft Brexit” are also popular, including remaining inside the EU fisheries policy and “allowing banks located in EU countries to provide services to people living in Britain while allowing British banks to provide services to people living in the EU”.
However, 70% of those polled, including 55% of those who voted remain, said they would like to see limits on EU immigration.
Some other aspects of a “hard Brexit” are also popular, including customs checks at the border with the EU, with 71% in favour.
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has said remaining in the customs union, which allows goods to pass freely across the border, is still an option being considered by the government.
However, Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, said on Tuesday that Britain would “probably” leave it – though business groups have warned of extensive disruption if tough border checks are imposed.
EU leaders have repeatedly said freedom of movement is inseparable from the other aspects of single market membership. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and Eurogroup president, has said that by suggesting Britain could achieve both things, Johnson was promising the public a deal that was “intellectually impossible” and “politically unavailable”.
The NatCen study suggests that if voters were forced to choose, they would be split almost evenly on which they would prioritise. Asked whether the UK should compromise and “allow people from the EU freely to come and live and work in return for allowing UK firms to trade freely with the EU”, 70% of remain voters said yes; the same proportion of leave voters said no.
“The safest summary of the public’s position does indeed appear to be that voters are probably quite evenly divided on the issue. If so, the choice is likely to prove politically a difficult one for the UK government to make,” the report suggests.
It concludes: “The more the UK is required by the EU to make a choice between keeping free trade and ending freedom of movement, the more difficult it will be for the government to emerge from the negotiations politically unscathed. Voters as a whole are evenly divided on whether ending freedom of movement should be abandoned in exchange for keeping free trade, while remain and leave voters take very different views on the issue.”
The survey involved recontacting participants in the highly respected British Social Attitudes survey over the period of a month.
A total of 1,391 people were interviewed between 22 September and 24 October, mostly via the internet but in 278 cases by phone, the latter group consisting of respondents who were unwilling or unable to answer via the internet. This represents a response rate of 54% among the 2,594 panellists who were invited to complete the survey.