Guardian writers’ predicted position: 16th (NB: this is not necessarily Dominic Fifield’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 11th
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 750-1
It was in Malmö in mid-July, on the eve of his team’s first pre-season friendly against Helsingør across the Öresund Bridge, that Roy Hodgson delivered his dose of realism. Crystal Palace’s incoming summer business amounted to a solitary free transfer from Spain, limited funds and hefty payments due on previous deals having prevented anything more lavish. Meanwhile, three of last season’s regular performers, with 76 top-flight appearances between them over the campaign, had moved on to leave holes gaping in the first-team.
Then there was the customary swirl of speculation surrounding Wilfried Zaha, the side’s talisman whom forces from the outside are forever wishing away, for all his regular insistence that he is settled and sanguine. Lose the Ivorian and survival, let alone consolidation, would feel precarious.
The fanbase were unnerved with social media whipped up into a frenzy. Enter Hodgson to offer some perspective. “The chairman has made it clear to me that, certainly this next season, it is all about survival again,” he said. “We mustn’t start getting ahead of ourselves and saying we did well last year, so let’s get even better. Let’s keep the modest approach and work very hard to make certain that we survive with a bit less stress than we did last year, when the knife was at our throats so often.”
Taken out of context, such a statement might not deliver much reassurance. This will be Palace’s sixth successive top-flight campaign, their best ever spell at this level, and still the talk is of survival rather than a push into European contention to emulate, for example, Burnley’s eye-catching achievements. Yet the reality of this treacherous division, as proved with the demise of Stoke, West Brom and Swansea last season, is that most clubs have to prioritise safety first. Everyone outside the very best will endure awkward periods: times when they are overwhelmed by better opposition, or undone by newcomers keen to make their mark. To steer clear of trouble requires tactical nous, faith and a recognition of how to eke the best from a squad, qualities Hodgson clearly boasts. He is the cause of Palace’s optimism.
This team may have lost Yohan Cabaye and their loanees, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Timothy Fosu-Mensah, but the coaching set-up alone suggests they are better placed than 12 months ago. To recap briefly, Palace had begun last term as a laughing stock – that record breaking seven-game scoreless losing streak had prompted premature comparisons with Derby circa 2008 – but ended it one of the form teams in the division. The ill-judged Frank de Boer experiment had been curtailed in its infancy with everything thereafter about recovery. Hodgson was the perfect fit, a man to salvage a season and build for the future. Even so, given the traumatic start, the whole exercise proved a test of patience as players reacquainted themselves with their underlying qualities, clawing back respectability in the process. They actually ended up 11th, a position bettered only three times in Palace’s history.
Hodgson had taken to the microphone in the giddy celebrations after a final day defeat of West Brom to set apparently achievable targets for the future, with memories drifting back to Fulham where he had secured a last-day survival and then led the team to seventh place the following year. Yet he had been permitted to spend that summer a decade ago luring the likes of Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora to Craven Cottage. At Palace, initial ambitions have been tempered by financial realities as the owners eye both the £100m redevelopment of Selhurst Park’s main stand and a prohibitive wage bill. It had risen 39% to £112m for 2016-17, the ninth largest in the division. The wages to turnover ratio of 78% was the highest in the top-flight. Since those figures were submitted, Mamadou Sakho has arrived from Liverpool, while Zaha signed new and improved terms.
Palace, as a mid-table team (their lowest finish has been 15th since gaining promotion) in a cherished stadium with obvious limitations when it comes to commercial revenues, find themselves in that tricky position where upgrading the squad is an exorbitant process. The first-team, constructed rather haphazardly by managers often parachuted in, still looks one of their best in the modern era, but Hodgson had craved greater depth and even fringe players capable of making an impact do not come cheap.
They have been quoted eight-figure loan fees for some players this summer, or well in excess of £35m by a rival club for the permanent transfer of a bit-part player who made five league starts last term. The staggering of transfer fees saw large payments due to Liverpool for Christian Benteke and Sakho, which limited funds further in the shortened window. The board briefly considered raising money through sales, but was it realistic to replace, for example, Andros Townsend adequately if Newcastle’s interest was entertained? Or, heaven forbid, any offers for Luka Milivojevic or James Tomkins?
Zaha is the prized asset, a player apparently courted by Everton and Tottenham, but a homegrown talent whose progression has come to stand for everything CPFC2010, the owners who bought Palace out of administration before attracting new investment from the US, have achieved. Those on the outside pondered whether £40m might be enough to lure Zaha away. If not, would £70m be acceptable? Yet this is about what the 25-year-old is worth to Palace, rather than what rivals might pay, so why would they consider any offers under £100m for a player without whom they did not even muster a point last season?
When the speculation regarding his future was at its height, Palace’s board emerged from a meeting with Zaha reassured that he had no desire to agitate for a summer move. His performances through pre-season suggested a player at ease, as have those of the team under Hodgson’s stewardship. There has been rhythm and incision to their displays, albeit in contests principally designed to build fitness. Alexander Sørlorth is more settled, the defensive unit assured, and the midfield learning to function post-Cabaye. Benteke simply cannot be as ineffective as he was last year, and the summer off may have been timely.
Connor Wickham has returned after 609 days out with a knee ligament injury, with Jason Puncheon also fit again and Scott Dann close. Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Vicente Guaita, the goalkeeper lured from Getafe, will add quality to the back-line. And after some patient negotiating, those reinforcements are starting to arrive. Max Meyer, a free agent since his release from Schalke, has signed a four-year deal worth £80,000-a-week. Cheikhou Kouyaté, squeezed out at West Ham, has joined for a cut-price fee and will bring Premier League experience. The loan market will also be tapped. Regardless, the aim will still be survival first and foremost. In Hodgson Palace trust. Therein lies their real hope.
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