Outfoxed, outgunned and outnumbered: How Sharad Pawar built and lost NCP

Sharad Pawar, the aging patriarch of the National Congress Party (NCP), is witnessing the unravelling of a party he built 24 years ago, ironically in somewhat similar circumstances. In 1999, Sharad Pawar, PA Sangma and Tariq Anwar had formed the NCP after they were expelled from the Congress for challenging its then president Sonia Gandhi. Pawar had challenged Sonia's foreign origin. Today, his nephew Ajit Pawar has challenged Sharad Pawar's age, asking him,"You are 83. Aren't you going to stop?"
The split in the NCP played out as numbers game today when the uncle and the nephew put up power shows at different venues in Mumbai. Ajit has an edge in numbers. Reportedly, 30 to 35 MLAs were present at Ajit's party meeting while 14 MLAs turned up for Sharad Pawar's meeting. The uncle has clearly been outnumbered by the nephew, days after he was outfoxed when Ajit went to Raj Bhawan along with seven MLAs and joined the Shinde-Fadnavis government by taking oath as the deputy CM while his MLAs took oath as ministers.

The NCP has 53 MLAs in the Maharashtra assembly. Ajit needs the backing of 36 MLAs to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law. In all likelihood, he will gather the numbers he needs.

How Pawar built the NCP
For Pawar, who has jumped parties to attain power, the history is repeating. His nephew has played his own signature move. In fact, the NCP's very beginning was marked by an abrupt turnaround.

Pawar had disputed Sonia Gandhi's right to lead the country on the ground that she was a foreigner by birth. She had become the Congress president after his husband Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, upsetting the senior leaders who saw her as an interloper. Since she was the party president, she would be the prime-ministerial candidate of the party too. That's what Pawar had challenged. Sonia expelled him and his allies Sangma and Anwar from the Congress, and they formed a new party, the NCP.

Pawar was not expelled from the party due to any issue but a big personal slight to Sonia which was supposed to have turned them into enemies for life. But months later, after the assembly elections in Maharashtra, Pawar's NCP allied with the Congress which formed the government with his support. Ajit, Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil and many other NCP leaders became ministers in the government. Few would have imagined that Pawar would ally with the Congress months after challenging its president, getting expelled and forming his own party.

A politician who has his eye on the main chance, Pawar has played nifty power moves to rise up the ranks. He became the chief minister by some smart and quick footwork. In 1978, when his mentor Yashwantrao Chavan left Congress (I) of Indira Gandhi to found the Congress (U), he followed suit. The Janata Party emerged as the single largest party in the next assembly elections. But Pawar's faction made up with the Congress (I) and allied with it to form the government in which Pawar became the minister of industry and labour. The game was not over for Pawar yet. He smelt a bigger chance and left the Congress (U), allied with the Janata Party and became the chief minister of the resultant coalition government, bringing down the Congress chief minister, Vasantdada Patil.

When Indira Gandhi came back to power, she dismissed Pawar's Maharashtra government in 1980. It took Pawar just seven years to return to his original party, the Congress, which was then headed by Rajiv Gandhi.

Pawar may have insulted Sonia and formed NCP ostensibly as an opponent of the Congress, yet he has been an ally of the Congress. In 2004, his party joined the Sonia-led UPA to form the national government of Manmohan Singh. For both the terms of the UPA till 2014, Pawar was the agriculture minister.

Known as the Maratha strongman, the secret of Pawar's hold on Maharashtra politics is his control over the agro industry --- the sugar farmers, the sugar mills and the cooperatives. He has had complete sway over his voter base so that there has never been an NCP without Sharad Pawar. He has been grooming Ajit as his successor. Just before the previous state elections, no one could imagine Ajit revolting against Pawar despite his odd criticism of Pawar's style of politics in the past. But it turned out Pawar's famous hold over the NCP had grown limp with time.

How Pawar lost his party
Ajit was clearly Sharad Pawar's successor whom he had been grooming for the role. His problems with his uncle did not grow out of his ambition but humiliation.

Ajit took oath as as the deputy CM in the Devendra Fadnavis government in 2019 which led to his humiliating return to his own party within days, presumably because Sharad Pawar refused to back him and decided to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi in alliance with the Congress and Shiv Sena. Ever since, he has been testing his uncle's supremacy. Ajit's designs to split the party and ally with the BJP came to fore a few months ago but Sharad Pawar preempted him by resigning as the party head, garnering sympathy of the party cadre, and then taking back his resignation. He also installed his daughter Supriya Sule as a working president of the party. This was a clear signal to Ajit that he had fallen out of favour with the Saheb.

But a leader who had jumped parties and switched sides all his life would produce a poor moral justification for rebels to refrain from undermining the party. Sharad Pawar had outwitted Ajit by putting up an emotional show, and it seemed the party cadre had supported him whole-heartedly, but now it appears Pawar was not able to stem the rebellion. Within two months of Pawar reinforcing his control of the party, Ajit has bolted with a majority of the NCP MLAs and Pawar's close confidantes and old loyalists such as Chhagan Bhujbal and Praful Patel.

It's clear that the NCP leaders did not see the future in aligning with the Congress and the Shiv Sena, which implies Pawar failed to read the writing on the wall, which is odd for a leader who has always kept an eye on the main chance. Pawar's decision to elevate his daughter Sule, who has little traction among the party cadre, also rankled with the senior party leaders.

Pawar, called the chanakya of politics, now stands outfoxed, outgunned and outnumbered by his rebel nephew. Ajit has moved the Election Commission, staking claim to the NCP as well as the party symbol. Many think if Ajit is able to win the support of 36 MLAs and gets to own the NCP, Pawar will get his just deserts. After all, Ajit's move would be right out of Pawar's own old playbook. But more importantly, Pawar's plight shows that leaders of family-run political parties can ignore their rank and file at their own peril.